Opinion: All technical supports for BTC have failed, and the overall scale of realized losses is approaching the bear market bottom.

November 13 - Analyst Murphy stated that crypto market sentiment has returned to "extreme fear." On November 12, the realized losses of both long-term and short-term holders transferring into trading platforms on an entity basis hit recent highs, with the overall scale approaching the bear market bottom period of June to July this year. Recently, the market has encountered multiple extreme bearish factors叠加, including the Binance black swan event, the Democratic Party's midterm landslide triggering concerns over AI infrastructure restrictions, CPI exceeding expectations, Nvidia's plunge due to scandal, and MSTR being removed from the MSCI index, among others. The severity has surpassed historical levels for the same period, except for March 12, 2020.

Murphy admitted underestimating the impact of collective panic and the short-selling forces behind it. Under the dominance of irrational behavior, all technical supports have failed. Facing the current situation, Murphy stated that in his personal holdings, ETH is trapped at $2,260, MSTRB is trapped at $136, and the floating profits on his heavily weighted BTC have severely shrunk, but he chooses to maintain his positions unchanged. He still firmly believes that the nine months from February to November this year are not a "bear market decline relay," but a transitional period after emerging from the bear bottom structure.

The analyst believes that next, sentiment trends will be comprehensively judged based on data. Once improvement signs and indicator resonance appear, he will only trade in one direction, that is, buying the dip. Investors who still have faith in Bitcoin should persist together.