HTX Chief Analyst Cloud: Bitcoin likely to keep ranging before Fed decision, $80,000 lower bound may be tested first

October 21 – Bitcoin has been stuck in the $80,000–$84,000 range for the past two weeks. HTX Chief Analyst Cloud believes this is essentially two forces canceling each other out: ETFs saw net outflows for two consecutive weeks, while exchange balances kept flowing out and long-term holders only took modest profits. In the week before the Fed's rate decision, Bitcoin will most likely continue to wait within the range. CME prices only a 16% chance of an October hike, yet economists generally see it as close to a coin flip—this gap between pricing and disagreement keeps capital from betting early.

If the market picks a direction early, the odds tilt slightly toward a downside test: funding rates remain elevated and options skew keeps leaning toward puts, indicating longs have not yet been flushed out and demand for downside protection is still growing. However, below $80,000 has repeatedly formed effective support over the past month, so a downside break is more likely to be a false breakout.

Confirmation signals for a breakout come in two sets. To the upside, Bitcoin needs a daily close above $84,200, three consecutive days of cumulative ETF net inflows exceeding $500 million, and a funding rate no higher than 15%. To the downside, it needs to lose $79,800, a single-week ETF outflow exceeding $500 million again, and exchange funds turning to net inflows. The real source of direction remains the rate decision announced in the early hours of October 29 Beijing time and the nearly 89% hike pricing for December.