ARK Invest Updates Tesla Valuation Model: Total Revenue to Reach $1.45 Trillion by 2031, Value of About $4,400 Per Share

October 21 - ARK Invest released an update to its open-source Tesla valuation model. According to the latest estimates, Tesla is expected to be worth about $4,400 per share by 2031, while Monte Carlo simulation results show a share price of about $5,000 in an optimistic scenario and about $3,300 in a pessimistic scenario.

ARK Invest expects the Robotaxi business to contribute about 80% of Tesla's enterprise value by 2031, with cumulative deployment of about 8.1 million Robotaxis in the base case. Meanwhile, the humanoid robot Optimus business is expected to accelerate, with external sales of about 1 million units by 2031 and about $212 billion in revenue generated through Robot-as-a-Service (RaaS). In addition, ARK Invest estimates that Tesla's total revenue will reach about $1.45 trillion by 2031, with an enterprise value of about $16.4 trillion.