Analysis: BTC long-term holder 30-day distribution volume falls 22%, unrealized profit buffer narrows slightly

October 29: CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that from October 22 to October 29, Bitcoin's long-term holder (LTH) MVRV fell from 1.67 to 1.65, with the market price 65% above this group's average cost basis, and the profit buffer narrowing by 2 percentage points this week. BTC is currently around $80,000, while the LTH average cost basis is $48,000.

Over the same period, the aggregate LTH 30-day distribution volume dropped from 310,000 to 240,000 BTC, a decline of 22%. This metric sums the daily reductions in supply of coins held for more than six months over the past 30 days; the drop was mainly due to smaller supply declines in recent days. Adler said LTHs still retain a considerable unrealized profit buffer, and the decline in distribution volume indicates that selling pressure has eased somewhat; a rebound in MVRV would show that the profit buffer has recovered relative to the cost basis, while if prices fall further, the main risk is a decline in LTH supply.