JPMorgan Adds Bitcoin to 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, Forecasts 10% Annualized Return

Nov. 5: Grayscale research head Zach Pandl posted that JPMorgan Asset Management has included bitcoin in its 2027 long-term capital market assumptions, marking another milestone for bitcoin as an institutional asset. The firm expects a base-case compound annual return of 10% for bitcoin over the next decade, with annualized volatility of 55%.

Pandl noted that this 10% expected return is higher than that of all other asset classes, while bitcoin's correlation with US large-cap stocks is estimated at only 33%, lower than that of international equities, corporate bonds and hedge funds. Assets that combine high absolute returns with low correlation to core stocks are hard to find, and these characteristics make bitcoin a potentially attractive portfolio diversification tool. However, JPMorgan remains cautious about unstable correlations and did not include bitcoin in its main covariance matrix. Pandl said institutional acceptance of bitcoin is rising, but its role in portfolios has yet to be determined.