Arthur Hayes: AI Giants Face Persistent Equity Dilution Pressure After Going Public, Weighing on Crypto Market Liquidity

November 5: Arthur Hayes published an article titled "D is for Dilution," warning that SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI will face massive share lockup expirations and dilution pressure after going public. By his estimate, SpaceX could add roughly 8.6 billion shares outstanding by June 2027, equivalent to about a 50% increase in share supply; initial Anthropic IPO investors could face dilution of up to 83% over the same period.

Hayes believes this could weaken the giants' stock prices, prompt bond investors to demand higher yields, and thereby trigger a contraction in the AI-related credit market. Because banks are deeply involved in the AI investment cycle, once AI financing demand cools, bank balance sheet expansion will slow or even shrink, in turn reducing dollar liquidity in the crypto market. However, Hayes also said that if the AI bubble ultimately triggers a financial crisis, major central banks around the world will step in with bailouts, and the resulting new liquidity could once again drive bitcoin and crypto assets higher.