QCP: Fed Rate Hike Probability Drops to 22%, BTC Must Hold Above $87,200 to Confirm Uptrend

On Oct 5, according to a market report from QCP Group, the macro narrative has fully reversed within three weeks, with the consensus for an October rate hike completely priced out and expectations for a Fed pause rising. US nonfarm payrolls in September added only 29,000 jobs, far below the 84,000 forecast, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% and wage growth slowed to 3.0% (the lowest since May 2021). Weak employment data reinforces the case for a rate hold in October, bringing the odds of a hike down to roughly 22%.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $86,700, with technical support at $85,000/$83,000 and resistance at $87,200/$90,000; Ethereum is at $2,725, with support at $2,650/$2,550 and resistance at $2,735–$2,800. The main event this week is the FOMC meeting minutes release at 2:00 AM Beijing time on Oct 8, as markets closely watch whether any hawkish dissent alters expectations, alongside positioning ahead of the Oct 14 CPI data.