Wintermute: Crypto market loses inflow support, BTC faces short-term pressure

On October 13: According to Wintermute’s weekly market update, the Fed minutes revealed that most officials expect another interest rate hike before the end of the year, with rate cuts not mentioned, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hit a multi-decade high. Affected by this, BTC fell 3.2% this week to around the $83,000 range, ETH dropped 7.0%, while the S&P 500 index rose 1.2% to set a new record high.

U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded net outflows of approximately $679 million for the week, marking the largest single-week outflow since June; ETH ETFs saw outflows of $542 million; data from CoinGlass shows liquidations totaling around $1.19 billion within 24 hours near Thursday's low, with long positions accounting for $1.06 billion. ETH faced additional pressure from reports that researchers associated with the Ethereum Foundation advised users to migrate to new addresses. BTC's market share rose to approximately 59.5%, representing the most distinct internal signal of the week.

Wintermute pointed out that with the Federal Reserve leaning toward rate hikes, yields are unlikely to retreat in the short term. Optimism toward the crypto market can only resume once both conditions—stabilization of long-end interest rates and spot ETFs resuming net inflows—are met simultaneously. It is recommended to closely monitor this week's September CPI data release on Wednesday, along with earnings reports from financial institutions and AI-related companies.