Whether Bitcoin will surpass $100,000 by year-end sparks debate, with inflation and Federal Reserve policy emerging as key variables.

On Oct. 18, according to CoinDesk, Bitwise Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen believes Bitcoin could surpass $100,000 by year-end. Key supports include sustained ETF and corporate purchases, demand for hard assets amid inflation and debt concerns, and declining risks due to clearer regulatory frameworks. However, he expects short-term volatility from potential Fed rate hikes later in October and the US midterm elections in November.

Adam Morgan McCarthy, Head of Research at LO:TECH, adopts a more cautious stance, with his baseline forecast keeping BTC between $85,000 and $95,000 through year-end. He points out that the Fed’s rate hike in September means markets are pricing in roughly a 75% probability of another increase in December, implying macro conditions will continue to cap Bitcoin. Only if December rate hike expectations pivot to a pause, coupled with falling oil prices and easing inflation, will BTC have a stronger chance of returning to $100,000.

James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, notes that the key tension lies in sticky inflation against a softening jobs market; if price pressures cool, the Fed will have more policy room, otherwise it may maintain tightening. Luca Invernizzi, Senior Derivatives Trader at Laser Digital, adds that Bitcoin remains chiefly driven by macroeconomic trends and US Treasury yields. Yet current market leverage has dropped significantly. While ETF inflows and corporate demand have moderated and crowded long positions have decreased, a decisive breakout above $90,000 could spark a new wave of short covering.

Additionally, Citi highlights that the total crypto market cap rose from around $2.1 trillion to nearly $3 trillion in Q3. ETF capital flows have turned positive once again, and activity at exchanges, within stablecoins, and across digital asset infrastructure has all improved, offering underlying support for the medium- to long-term market.