ARK Invest Updates Tesla Valuation Model: Total Revenue to Reach $1.45 Trillion by 2031, Share Value Approximately $4,400

On October 20 that ARK Invest released an update to Tesla's open-source valuation model. Based on the latest estimates, Tesla's projected value per share by 2031 is approximately $4,400. According to Monte Carlo simulation results, the stock price would be around $5,000 under an optimistic scenario and approximately $3,300 under a pessimistic scenario.

ARK Invest expects Tesla's Robotaxi business to contribute approximately 80% of the company's enterprise value by 2031, with around 8.1 million Robotaxis cumulatively deployed under the base scenario. Meanwhile, the Optimus humanoid robot business is poised for accelerated growth, with external sales projected to reach about 1 million units by 2031 and generate approximately $212 billion in revenue through robotics-as-a-service (RaaS).

Furthermore, ARK Invest projects that Tesla's total revenue in 2031 will reach approximately $1.45 trillion, with an enterprise value of around $16.4 trillion.