Elon Musk: Orbital computing power will surpass ground-based computing power by the end of 2028.

On October 31, Sequoia Capital partner Shaun Maguire released a bottom-up financial model for SpaceX covering through the end of 2028. X user SPCX100T charted the quarterly data under its median scenario, stating that SpaceX's revenue will see a significant inflection point in 2027.

According to the model, SpaceX's revenue for fiscal year 2026 is approximately $51.5 billion, fiscal year 2027 around $270 billion, and fiscal year 2028 will exceed $700 billion, with growth primarily driven by the SI business segment.

Maguire added that due to the rapidly changing industry, these forecasts carry a wide margin of error.

Musk replied to the post, noting that ground-based compute is "negligible" compared to orbital compute, and that monthly deployed orbital compute is expected to surpass ground-based compute by the end of 2028, drastically outpacing it in 2029.