BIT Trading Moment: BlackRock's $665M Splurge Can't Break the Options Gravity Wall, AI Duo's Explosive Earnings Help BTC Reclaim $83,000

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BTC's $83,000 Ceiling: The Options Wall, ETF Lone Buying, and the $80,000 Lifeline

Buoyed by the US earnings season easing pressure on tech stocks, Bitcoin briefly surged above $83,400. Asset manager Hashdex noted that this Bitcoin bear market had lasted 359 days as of the end of September, approaching the historical cycle extreme of 361 to 411 days, and the share of short-term holder supply had fallen to 16%, the lowest since January 2023. However, The Wolf Of All Streets podcast warned that as Wall Street giants allow clients to directly pledge and borrow against Bitcoin ETFs, traditional finance will comprehensively squeeze the survival space of native crypto lending platforms over the next 12 to 24 months.

Although spot buying has warmed, traders generally find extremely strong technical resistance looming above the $83,000 to $86,000 range, with Bitcoin locked in a fierce tug-of-war between key moving averages and liquidity clusters. Material Indicators co-founder Keith Alan pointed out that while buyers have repeatedly defended the 50-day moving average at $81,570, the 21-day moving average at $83,230 has formed strong short-term pressure. Trader Kaz also observed that price has repeatedly been blocked at the monthly and quarterly volume-weighted average prices.

Looking ahead, the bull camp believes $80,000 is the key defensive line, arguing that the current chip absorption under low volatility mirrors the 2023–2025 bull market, and that if the daily or 4-hour chart effectively breaks through the $83,000–$84,000 resistance zone, it will accelerate expansion toward $87,000. The bear camp, meanwhile, warns that $83,000–$86,000 is a "bull trap" formed by the neckline of a daily head-and-shoulders bottom, with far thicker bullish leverage stacked below $67,000–$72,000 than above. Once the $80,000 defense line is breached, the market may slide in succession to the monthly fair value gaps at $78,000 and $75,000, and could even trigger a retest of the 200-day moving average ($69,000–$72,000) or a deep washout to $53,000.

What invisible hand is pinning down Bitcoin's bull run at $84,000? Analyst ThePenguinBTC revealed that since October 11, Bitcoin has failed four times to break above $84,000. The core reason is that options market makers hold large positions in the $82,000–$85,000 range. To remain delta-neutral, every 1% rise in price forces them to mechanically sell roughly 1,500 BTC (about $124 million) into the market. This "sell more as it rises" hedging mechanism forms an invisible resistance wall.

Meanwhile, Deribit data shows that put option trading volume over the past 24 hours was more than double that of calls, and the $80,000 put expiring on October 30 was the most actively traded. BlackRock even filed for an ETF with downside protection structure. The turning point lies in this Friday's options expiry of 52,000 BTC (about $4.2 billion), at which point 60% of the market makers' passive selling pressure at $84,000 will dissipate substantially, and the resistance wall will shift back to $88,000–$90,000. During the quiet period before the Fed's October 27–28 FOMC meeting, whether new short positions are rebuilt at $84,000 after Friday's options expiry, along with tonight's earnings from US tech giants, will directly determine whether Bitcoin can ride the momentum to break its shackles.

On the current complex liquidity picture, BIT Asset Management head Daniel YU pointed out that US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $526.6 million in net inflows on Monday, but buying was highly dependent on BlackRock's IBIT (which bought $665.2 million in a single day), and market breadth remains insufficient. At the same time, Ethereum ETFs saw cumulative net outflows of $1.06 billion this month, with no sign of the expected rotation of funds. Daniel emphasized that the average cost basis of ETF holders at $82,300, as calculated by Nexo, has become a psychological battleground more critical than any moving average. Given that Bitcoin has been highly tied to the US stock market's "AI beta" rather than Dow industrials over the past three months, the capex guidance in this week's tech giant earnings is the true variable determining the market's direction. On the technical side, watch $83,400 (20-day moving average), the $84,200 breakout confirmation level, and this month's high of $87,229 above; if the $80,000 support below faces its third test since October, the success or failure of the defense line will depend entirely on whether the eleven ETFs other than BlackRock are willing to step in and take over.

Today's Key Points:

• Solana Alpenglow upgrade goes live on mainnet
• Aerodrome and Velodrome initiate merger
• Starknet community to complete intent vote on transitioning to an independent quantum-resistant L1 on October 22
• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: DOOD, MPLX, XRP, BTC, IOST
• Bitcoin spot ETF: +$23.1624 million
• Ethereum spot ETF: -$26.1343 million, net outflows for 5 consecutive days

Today's biggest gainers among the top 100 coins by market cap: BTW +36.8%, ZEC +13.2%, RAIN +12.8%, PYTH +9.8%, ENA +9.6%.

SpaceX and Super Micro Lead US Stocks in Overnight Trading

The three major US stock index futures diverged, with Nasdaq futures up 0.22%, S&P 500 futures up 0.05%, and Dow futures down 0.1%.

BIT overnight trading data shows that SpaceX and Super Micro Computer stood out, surging 9.27% and 15.95% respectively in overnight trading.

SpaceX's Q3 revenue surged 161% year-over-year to $14.58 billion, with net profit more than doubling expectations. Its "Super Intelligence (SI)" AI business revenue soared 830% to $7.56 billion, and it confirmed for the first time that it is exploring a potential merger with Tesla. With a combined valuation of up to $3.5 trillion, Ark Invest's "Wood Sister" Cathie Wood promptly raised her 2031 optimistic price target for Tesla to $5,000, driving Tesla up another 1.68% in overnight trading.

Super Micro's preliminary fiscal quarter revenue reached $18.5 billion to $19.5 billion, far exceeding expectations, lifting the entire computing power supply chain. Dell Technologies and Credo rose over 6%, Bloom Energy and Nebius rose over 5.5%, CoreWeave, Lumentum, Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), and Coherent all rose over 4%, Intel, Micron, SanDisk, Marvell Technology, Arm, and Lam Research all rose about 3%, AMD rose 2.85%, and Nvidia rebounded 1.99%.

By contrast, streaming giant Netflix plunged 6.19% in overnight trading as its Q4 revenue growth slowed for the fourth consecutive quarter, it cut its full-year 2026 advertising revenue guidance to $2.7 billion, and it faced pressure from YouTube siphoning viewing time. Together with Meta and Tesla, which face their earnings tests after tonight's close, Netflix became the most core focus of today's pre-market watch.

Healthcare Lifts US Stocks Slightly; Market Still Fears AI Monetization

On Tuesday, the Dow surged 1.02%, the Russell 2000 jumped 1.66%, the S&P 500 rose 0.28% to reclaim its 50-day moving average, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.02%. Morgan Stanley chief strategist Michael Wilson suggested that the eventual "catch-down" of core quality stocks would present an excellent window to add positions. Although Goldman Sachs' head of asset allocation and Wells Fargo's chief strategist recommended buying the dip because sentiment indicators hit extreme pessimism thresholds, the market still fears AI monetization.

Citadel founder Ken Griffin warned of "three traps" lurking in the computing power market, bluntly stating that GPUs are like airlines—once supply exceeds demand, marginal pricing will free-fall like the "dark fiber" of 2000—and that outdated GPU depreciation models are failing while enterprise-side ROI calculations collide head-on with the cash-burning plans of large model giants. Related corporate data disclosures show:

• Anthropic's draft prospectus shows a net loss of up to $80.7 billion in the first half, with future computing power commitment spending potentially reaching $750 billion, and its valuation expectation cut from $2 trillion to $1.5 trillion.
• Google CEO Sundar Pichai said that although Gemini 4 Argon's usage approached 25 trillion tokens within 72 hours of launch, constrained by power and other supply chain bottlenecks, Google's Q2 free cash flow turned negative at -$5.855 billion.
• Amazon AWS was reported to have stored $5 billion worth of NVIDIA GB300 racks in warehouses due to power shortages at sites.

As a result, capital fled tech stocks. Apple fell 1% as the delivery wait for its first foldable iPhone Duo reached 14 weeks, a decade-long record, and Meta fell 1.59% in risk-off trading ahead of its earnings release. Capital flowed into defensive sectors such as healthcare (up 2.34%). Pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly surged 3.49% to a record high on a clinical win for its pediatric intestinal drug and the strength of its weight-loss drug pipeline, with Goldman Sachs raising its price target to $1,413; Moderna and Viking both surged over 6%. In addition, Salesforce's $5.66 billion acquisition of Braze sent the latter soaring 51.70%, Hasbro, which raised its guidance, and 3M, which expanded its Amazon data center partnership, jumped 11.2% and 5.8% respectively, while General Motors, which warned of rising costs, plunged 6.8%.

Furthermore, Goldman Sachs released a heavyweight report bullish on copper (average price seen at $15,400/ton next year), gold (seen at $5,400 by end-2027), and the PJM power grid, saying "chips and data centers can be printed, but copper mines, gold bars, and substations cannot."

Thanks to Bitcoin reclaiming the $83,000 level and a rebound in small-cap risk appetite, the US "crypto concept stock" sector saw a structural recovery on Tuesday and extended its gains in overnight trading. According to BIT US Stocks data, Strategy surged 4.93% and continued up 2.04% in overnight trading; Circle soared 5.53% and added 0.63% overnight; Robinhood and Coinbase closed up 1.75% and 1.42% respectively, with Robinhood co-hosting a closed-door investor conference with JPMorgan, where the market is closely watching the macro and regulatory signals released by US Treasury Secretary Bessent and legendary investor Druckenmiller.

Crypto miners and computing-power transition stocks diverged with the ebb and flow of AI infrastructure sentiment: Bitdeer rose 1.95%, Marathon Digital and Hut 8 closed up 1.42% and 1.28% respectively, American Bitcoin edged up 0.66%, and Canaan closed flat; while miners pivoting toward AI computing power hosting came under intraday pressure, with Riot Platforms down 1.43%, Cipher Digital, Terawulf, and CleanSpark slipping 0.35% to 0.67%. Data center operator IREN, despite plunging 4.00% intraday on panic over its new cloud segment, rebounded 5.41% after SpaceX and Super Micro ignited computing power demand in after-hours trading.

Chip Frenzy Triggers Korea's Circuit Breaker; CATL's "Profit Stall" Evaporates 140 Billion, Dragging A-Shares and Hong Kong

South Korea's KOSPI closed up 3.29%, and intraday triggered the SIDECAR mechanism to suspend programmatic buying for 5 minutes due to excessive gains. The core driver of this surge was the first 20 days of October trade data released by Korea Customs, with chip exports soaring 222.5% year-over-year to $27.5 billion, a record high that thoroughly shattered the demand-cliff narrative. South Korean Finance Minister Lee Hyung-il said the semiconductor boom will last at least until 2027 and could help push South Korea's total exports past the $1 trillion mark for the first time this year. Samsung Electronics surged 5.67% and SK Hynix rose 5.8%, with the latter announcing that its two-month, 40 trillion won stock buyback and cancellation plan—the largest in Korean history—was completed a month ahead of schedule. Notably, Elice, a Korean AI cloud computing service provider that plunged 32% on its debut yesterday, hit its 30% daily limit-up intraday.

Japan's stock market was likewise lifted by the global rebound in semiconductor sentiment, with the Nikkei 225 closing up 0.85%. However, former Bank of Japan monetary policy board member Maeda Eiji publicly stated that the central bank's next rate hike window will be in December, and that it may maintain a pace of one hike per quarter pointing to 2.25%. Coupled with China's legal export controls on key rare earths such as yttrium targeting Japan's "remilitarization" and nuclear ambitions, which left Japan's reserves in short supply, gains in automobile and precision manufacturing heavyweights were limited.

In stark contrast to the chip frenzy in Japan and South Korea, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks both suffered a "spring chill" of opening high and closing low today, with earnings blowups among new energy heavyweights and selling pressure on tech stocks causing the market to lose key psychological levels:

• A-share Shanghai Composite fell 0.60%, the Shenzhen Component fell 0.82%, and the ChiNext plunged 1.62% after surging nearly 1% intraday (losing the 2,700 level and hitting a new low since August 2025), with only the STAR 50 edging up 0.06%. Combined turnover across Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing shrank by 29.5 billion yuan to 1.44 trillion yuan, with over 3,300 stocks declining.
• Hong Kong stocks were likewise under pressure, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.90% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.26%, officially breaking below the 4,000 level and hitting a new low since October 2024. Tencent broke below the HK$400 mark and plunged over 4%, while Pop Mart fell 4.8%.

The primary culprit behind the sell-off in A-shares and Hong Kong was lithium battery giant CATL's "Davis double-kill" after its Q3 report, with its A-shares plunging 12.03% for the largest single-day drop in history (evaporating 140 billion yuan in market value in a single day, halving from its May high this year), while its H-shares tumbled 11.4% to a near 15-month low. Although CATL's Q3 revenue and shipments hit record highs, its unit net profit plunged to a historic low of 82 yuan/kWh and operating cash flow fell off a cliff, prompting Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, UBS, and Jefferies to collectively cut their price targets and earnings forecasts, dragging multiple stocks across the lithium battery supply chain, including Shidai Wanheng and Shanghai Xiba, to limit-down.

What to Watch Next:

October 21 (Wednesday)

• Jensen Huang's GTC keynote: European sovereign AI, inference demand, new architecture, and partnership scale are the focus; the market needs clear orders, not just long-term vision.
• World Intelligent Connected Vehicles Conference opens; China-EU Investment, Trade and Technology Cooperation Conference runs through the 23rd: watch autonomous driving, vehicle-road-cloud standards, and cross-border industrial cooperation.
• Bessent and Druckenmiller attend the JPMorgan–Robinhood investor conference: the conference is closed to media; if public information emerges, watch fiscal financing, interest rates, and market risk assessments.
• US earnings: IBM, AT&T before the open; Meta, Tesla, Lam Research, Texas Instruments after the close.

October 22 (Thursday)

• 04:30 Meta earnings call; 05:30 Tesla Q&A livestream: For Meta, focus on whether AI spending can be covered by advertising growth, with market expectations of $63.29 billion in revenue, $40.97 billion in capex, and -$9.14 billion in free cash flow; for Tesla, focus on how deliveries exceeding 486,000 vehicles and 13.7 GWh of energy storage deployments translate into profit.
• Bank of Korea rate decision: expected to pause after consecutive hikes; if tightening continues, the won may find support, but chip stocks and companies with large financing needs will face pressure.
• US 20-year Treasury auction: focus on demand strength and whether the final yield exceeds expectations, testing whether this round of Treasury rally can continue and transmitting to gold and tech stocks.
• Earnings: Nokia, Spotify, American Airlines, Procter & Gamble; after the close, watch Bloom Energy, Western Digital, Newmont.

October 23 (Friday)

• 07:30 Japan September CPI: expected 2.1% year-over-year, prior 1.9%; if higher than expected, it will strengthen bets on BOJ rate hikes, affecting the yen and global carry trades.

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