Goldman Sachs: Japan AI Semiconductor Stocks' Plunge a "Non-Recession," Intel's Capex Hike to Fuel Buying Opportunity

July 29th. Goldman Sachs Japan released its latest strategy report, pointing out that the recent sharp sell-off of Japanese AI-related stocks has created a buying opportunity. The strong earnings outlook is expected to revive investor interest in semiconductor stocks. The direct catalyst for this assessment comes from Intel - the company has raised its 2026 capital expenditure outlook by about $3 billion and has clearly stated its intention to significantly increase spending on wafer fabrication equipment. Goldman Sachs believes that Intel's accelerated advancement in advanced processes (including the 18A and 14A nodes) and investment in advanced packaging will directly drive orders for closely associated Japanese equipment suppliers, and the industry's trading logic has not been disrupted by short-term adjustments.

In this context, Goldman Sachs has identified three Japanese semiconductor equipment manufacturing companies as its top recommended targets. Lasertec is listed as the industry's top pick, maintaining a Buy rating with a target price of 70,000 yen. It remains on the Asia-Pacific High-Conviction List, with a high exposure to Intel sales and a direct benefit from the advancement of advanced processes. Tokyo Electron maintains a Buy rating with a target price of 83,000 yen (currently around 62,800 yen). Intel's increased budget for fab equipment will support its manufacturing tool demand. Disco, on the other hand, will benefit from Intel's expansion of the EMIB-T advanced packaging capacity plan, with backend processing equipment demand expected to receive structural uplift.