JPMorgan Chase Analyses FOMC Impact on US Stocks: Fed 50% Likely to Maintain Hawkish Stance, S&P 500 Could Weaken

July 29, JPMorgan Chase speculated on the impact of tonight's FOMC decision on the U.S. stock market. JPMorgan Chase expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, with a hawkish hold as the base case scenario (50% probability), where the S&P 500 Index is expected to remain flat or decline by 0.5%.

The most bullish outcome is seen in the dovish hold scenario (28% probability), which could push the index up by 1%.

In the scenario of a 25-basis-point rate hike (20% probability), the S&P 500 Index may decline by 1.5%-2%, with the Nasdaq Index likely to underperform.