After Not Raising Rates in July, Big Brother Who Profited $350,000 Predicts Rate Change in September

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a savvy investor has put in $21.2k on the outcome of “Will the Federal Reserve maintain the interest rate ceiling after the September 2026 meeting?” betting “No,” with an average buy-in probability of 55.8%, while the current “Yes” probability is 44.5%.

Address 0x0feb1bf9 has invested $21.2k and is most active in the Federal Reserve Rate segment on this market, with a net profit of $173k. Out of a total of 1 settled transaction in this segment, the success rate is 1/1 (100%), with 1 trade having a buy-in price below $0.8 and a sell-out price above $0.95.

This account doubled down yesterday on the fallout from the July Fed decision. On July 29, the Fed voted 9-3 to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, realizing a $350k profit from a nearly million-dollar position previously established around the “no rate hike” thesis.

The Fed statement also noted that the economy continues to expand robustly, with little change in the labor market, but inflation remains above the 2% target, and supply shocks in industries such as energy have driven prices higher. On the side advocating for a rate change, three members, Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan, voted in favor of a 25 basis point hike; on July 28, Reuters also reported that the Middle East conflict boosted energy prices, with the U.S. average gasoline price rising back above $4 per gallon, with markets closely watching whether inflation will further accelerate before September.

Account:
0x0feb1bf966bc7f954c2da0293ae2fdc572c5db5d

Total Investment: $21.2k
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