Apple's End-of-Month Last Trading Day, Financial Sector Smart Money Predicts It Will Drop Out of First

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, a smart money has placed a $1.7k bet on "Will Apple become the world's largest company by market cap on July 31?" choosing "No," with an average buy-in probability of 34.8%. The current probability of "Yes" stands at 25.3%.

Address 0xf0ca28d5 has invested $1.7k and is most active in the Financial sector in this market, with a net profit of $282k. Out of 153 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 57/153 (37%), with 27 trades meeting the criteria of buying below $0.8 and selling above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.251-$0.4), the median historical investment amount is $3.9k.

Reuters reported that on July 30, Apple announced its Q3 FY2026 earnings, with forward guidance significantly below market expectations. Apple anticipates a 9%–11% year-over-year revenue growth for the quarter ending in September, lower than the market's consensus of about 12% growth; iPhone growth guidance is around 15%, also below analysts' expectations of 17%+. Additionally, Services revenue ($30.74 billion) and Greater China revenue ($18.82 billion) both fell short of market expectations, indicating a slowdown in high-margin businesses and key regional growth.

Tim Cook mentioned that advanced chip supply constraints continue to impact the shipment pace of Apple Silicon in iPhone, Mac, and iPad. This statement reinforced the market's concerns about "peak hardware growth + supply constraints," prompting investors to reprice the growth trajectory for the next two quarters. Following the earnings release, the market compared the "current above-expectation performance" to the "future below-expectation growth trajectory," leading to a rapid devaluation, with Apple's stock price falling around 5.5% in after-hours trading.

By the end of the regular trading day on the 30th, Apple's stock price closed at $333.43, with a market cap of about $4.91 trillion. Nvidia rose 2.65% to $195.04 on the same day, with a market cap of around $4.76 trillion. Based on the static estimate of Apple's post-market price, its market cap is approximately $4.64 trillion, now below Nvidia's.

Note: Based on their trading history, this trader is not necessarily betting on whether the event will actually occur; there is a possibility of taking profit or stop-loss actions at a certain point after opening a position.

Account:
0xf0ca28d5b0141f0a8e7b251dea80fd881cb166ed

Total Investment: $1.7k
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