Hong Hao: Both Cycle Analysis and "Fortune Telling" Are Essentially About Prediction, the Difference Lies in Methodology

In a report on July 31st, during an offline private event at Binance, renowned economist Hong Hao discussed the relationship between market cycle research and "metaphysics." He mentioned that both investment research and traditional fortune-telling essentially involve predicting the future, with the key difference lying in the methodology they rely on.

Hong believes that traditional fortune-telling is more based on long-term experiential observations to summarize patterns, while investment research relies on historical data to deduce future trends through quantitative analysis. Both are fundamentally attempting to understand the uncertainty of the future. He pointed out that there is no one-size-fits-all answer in market forecasting. For example, when to buy the dip, he cannot provide a uniform answer to everyone because investment decisions vary from person to person. In his view, whether it's cycle research or prediction, both are essentially explorations of future patterns, but all forecasts have limits and must be approached with humility.

Hong concluded by stating, "Predictions are essentially glimpses into the future, and 'leaking divine secrets' itself is a challenging endeavor."