The Fed's 100% Win Rate Smart Money, which once lost big due to Trump going crazy, is now back predicting no rate change in September

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, a smart money has wagered $124.2k on "Will the Fed maintain the interest rate ceiling after the September 2026 meeting?" with an average buy-in probability of 48.3%. The current probability of "Yes" is 44.5%.

Address 0xfbe66593 invested $124k, with the top-related category in this market being Fed Rates, resulting in a net profit of $103k. The account has a settlement record of 5/5 in this category, with 2 trades having a buy-in price below $0.8 and a sell-out price above $0.95.

This account has a perfect 5/5 settlement record in the Fed category, accumulating a net profit of one hundred thousand dollars. Its biggest loss came from the US-Iran Peace Agreement market: the account consistently predicted "No Agreement" during the agreement's anticipated warming phase. After Trump announced the agreement, the position plummeted, resulting in a loss of approximately $100k. Another similar-term position also reset to zero, with a total loss of about $199k, wiping out twice the previous profit in the Fed Rates category.

The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75% on July 29. The decision received 9 votes in favor, with Commissioners Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan advocating for an immediate 25 basis point rate hike. Chairman Kevin Warsh did not provide guidance for September and reiterated the committee's goal of restoring the inflation rate to 2%.

The US GDP in the second quarter grew at an annualized rate of 1.5%, consumer spending increased by 3.2%, and business equipment investment rose by 15.2%. Nonfarm payrolls added 57k in June, with the labor force participation rate dropping to 61.5%. The Fed will hold its next meeting on September 15-16, where they will release the latest economic forecasts.

Note: Based on their past trading profile, this trader is not speculating on the actual outcome of events but instead engages in profit-taking and stop-loss behaviors after opening positions.

Account:
0xfbe66593e49c4e7a7180a2582f041158bfb800f8

Total Investment: $124.2k
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