Vaulted CEO: Quantum Computing Could 'Break' Bitcoin in the Next 4 Years

August 2nd, according to Forbes report, Gold investment app Vaulted CEO David McAlvany said he believes Bitcoin could disappear in the next 4 years due to quantum computing. He stated that once quantum computers can quickly solve the mathematical problem of protecting Bitcoin's private keys, "that will be the end of Bitcoin."

However, McAlvany later admitted that he cannot be sure whether such a breakthrough will occur in 4 years, 5 years, or even two months later. As of mid-2026, there is still no quantum computer capable of breaking Bitcoin's encryption algorithm. His view is mainly based on concerns about the future development speed of quantum computing, rather than on security events that have already occurred.

Galaxy Digital estimates that about 7 million BTC addresses have exposed public keys on-chain, with a total value of around $470 billion; Glassnode's estimate is 6.04 million BTC, accounting for 30.2% of the Bitcoin supply. Public key exposure does not mean that the assets have been stolen. Only when a quantum computer can derive private keys from public keys, these addresses may face actual theft risks.

McAlvany also compared Bitcoin to gold and questioned whether Bitcoin can last for 5000 years. He said he is relatively certain that gold will still exist at that time, but Bitcoin "may or may not exist."

Bitcoin developers currently have differing opinions on solutions. BIP-360 proposes to add quantum-resistant address types; BIP-361 plans to gradually stop supporting old-style signatures, with assets that are not migrated in time possibly being permanently frozen, including Bitcoin believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto. Supporters believe that freezing assets is better than allowing quantum attackers to steal and sell, while critics view it as confiscation.

Companies such as BOLTS Technologies and American Fortress are also developing cross-chain quantum-resistant solutions. American Fortress completed an $8 million seed round financing in May and claimed that their technology can protect assets without requiring users to migrate their addresses, but related technical papers have not been published, and the design has not undergone a public audit.