Predicting a "U.S. Invasion of Iran" has already lost 40% of its value, yet Trader XM39 still holds a long position of 7 million barrels of crude oil.

August 10th, according to TradingBeats (formerly Hyperinsight) monitoring, Polymarket trader 'xm39' continues to face pressure on the "United States Will Invade Iran by 2027" Yes bet, with the current position increased to 1.0992 million shares, total cost approximately $286,200, and average entry price of 26.03 cents.

The contract is currently priced at 15.5 cents, and the position's value has decreased to approximately $170,400, with an unrealized loss of about $115,800, representing a loss of 40.47%. Compared to tracking on August 3rd, xm39 has since increased holdings by about 161,500 shares, added an additional investment of about $31,500, with the unrealized loss expanding by approximately $53,300; there have been no new prediction market transactions today.

Meanwhile, xm39 once again established a long position in crude oil this morning. By midday, through 873 trades, the cumulative purchase of 88,000 WTI crude oil contracts (CL) was made, with a transaction amount of approximately $6.9127 million, a transaction price of $78.54. At the time of writing, the address is holding 20x leveraged fully, with an unrealized profit of about $15,700, a return of about 4.53%, and a liquidation price of $75.75.

Almost simultaneously with the start of buying crude oil, xm39 also added a short position of 24.31 contracts of XYZ100 at an average price of 29,729.68 points, with a transaction amount of approximately $722,700. Currently, it holds a total of 80.28 XYZ100 short positions, with a position value of approximately $2.3976 million, an average price of 29,654.27 points, an unrealized loss of about $16,900, and a liquidation price of 32,984.70 points.

The combined nominal value of the two positions is currently approximately $9.3259 million, with unrealized gains and losses offsetting each other, resulting in a net unrealized loss of about $1,258. It also has 20 "Reduce Only" buy orders for XYZ100 at 29,388 points, with a nominal amount of approximately $587,800, planning to reduce the existing short position by about 24.9%.

Currently, it continues to bet on the U.S. taking military action against Iran in Polymarket, and in Hyperliquid, it is doubling down on crude oil and shorting the Nasdaq index mapping contract, both pointing towards the macro direction of war escalation, oil price strength, and pressure on risk assets.

Reportedly, among the 65 closed positions the trader has on Polymarket, none are related to the US-Iran, Iran, or the Hormuz markets; in oil trading, out of 5 rounds of long positions, there are 4 wins and 1 loss, with an 80% success rate; the only short position made a profit of approximately $17,200.

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