After Palantir's earnings report, the stock price surged nearly 40% in a single week, with smart money betting on it to close the week above $168.
According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a savvy trader has placed a $1.6k bet on "Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $168 this week?", with an average buy-in probability of 77.0%. The current probability of "Yes" is 68.5%.
superstonksbro has also bet $1.6k, with stocks being the most relevant category in this market, leading to a net profit of $128k. Out of 8315 settled trades in this category, the trader has a win rate of 4647/8315 (56%), with 1877 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.701-$0.85), the trader's median historical investment amount is $256.
In Palantir's Q2 earnings report released on August 3, they revealed a 93% YoY revenue growth, with a 149% YoY growth in U.S. commercial revenue and a 90% YoY growth in U.S. government revenue to $809 million. The company also raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to around $8.15 billion-$8.158 billion. Following the earnings report, PLTR surged approximately 29.5% on August 4, prompting MarketWatch to declare it had its best single-week performance since 2024, with a weekly increase of nearly 40%.
Analysts' opinions on the future trend are centered on "whether AI growth can continue to justify the high valuation." MarketWatch reported on August 8 that institutions like William Blair and Deutsche Bank have reclassified Palantir under the "AI winners" narrative, believing it can convert AI into measurable value faster than traditional software companies. A compilation by Investing.com shows that 27 analysts have an average 12-month target price of around $189.90 for PLTR.
The relationship between Palantir and the defense industry is a crucial aspect of this trade. It is not merely a SaaS company but a deep-data and AI software company serving government, intelligence, and defense systems. Palantir's own U.S. Army page states that its software helps the Army leverage AI insights for cross-domain rapid decision-making; in April 2025, DefenseScoop reported that NATO awarded Palantir a Maven Smart System contract for AI-assisted battlefield operations. The 90% YoY growth in Q2 U.S. government revenue also underscores that military and government demand remain vital to the company's growth.
Therefore, if defense AI demand from Iran, NATO, Ukraine, and others continues to strengthen, the market may be more willing to accept Palantir's high valuation. However, by August 14, the real decider of this market will be whether PLTR can hold the $168 closing line amid profit-taking after the earnings and tech stock volatility.
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