The July CPI will be announced tonight, with inflation experts predicting the US July CPI to be 3.4%.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, a savvy investor placed a $6.1k bet on "Is U.S. July Annual Inflation Rate 3.4%?" with an average buying probability of 40.6%, and the current probability of "Yes" is 39.0%.

perfectnostalgia wagered $6.1k, with the most relevant market segment being inflation, earning a net profit of $62.7k. Out of 226 settled trades in this segment, the win rate is 132/226 (58%), with 54 trades where the buying price was less than $0.8 and the selling price was greater than $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.351-$0.5), the median historical wager amount is $1.6k.

Finimize's analysis on August 12 stated that Wall Street expects July inflation to continue to ease, with rent potentially being a key cooling factor rather than gasoline or food. If housing inflation slows down and energy prices remain weak, the CPI has the opportunity to decrease from June's 3.5%. A 3.4% inflation rate requires a further cooling of inflation, but not too rapidly.

Currently, the cumulative probability of CPI data being between 3.3% - 3.4% is 80%. PNC Bank's report on August 10 directly links this CPI release with the Fed's path: if core CPI remains relatively mild, it will reinforce the impact of weak jobs data and significantly dampen market expectations of a rate hike in 2026; however, if core inflation runs hot, the rate hike discussion could quickly resurface.
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