Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Still Lacks Direct Talk Schedule, New Account Predicts No Ceasefire Agreement Within the Year

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a new account has invested $11.0k in the question "Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?" The average buy-in probability is 68.4%, and the current probability for "No" is 27.5%.

Today, Zelensky stated that Ukraine has submitted a new proposal to the U.S. negotiation representative to end the war, but the specific details have not been disclosed. U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to visit Kyiv and Moscow, with no announced date for the visits.

Russia has demanded that Ukraine fully relinquish control of four regions claimed by Moscow and address what the Russian side refers to as the root causes of the conflict. Zelensky mentioned that Ukrainian intelligence anticipates Russia may mobilize tens of thousands of additional troops after the September parliamentary elections. Russian officials have not responded to the claims of a new mobilization.

Russian forces attacked Zaporizhstal in Zaporizhzhia on the 11th, resulting in the deaths of 7 workers at the steel plant and at least 24 injuries. Ukraine alleges that Russian forces used North Korean ballistic missiles in the attack. Ukrainian forces have recently targeted Russian oil refineries and petrochemical plants in Orsk, Nizhnekamsk, and Tobolsk, causing fires and shutdowns. Both sides continue long-range strikes.

Account:
0x4c1a4d3f08279b5a035c5c8c26a2c522fcd88985

Total Investment: $11.0k
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