Iranian Panel Predicts Saudi Will Strike Iran with Smart Money This Month

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a savvy trader has bet $2.8k on the question "Will Saudi Arabia take military action against Yemen this month?" with an average buy-in probability of 55.3%. The current probability of "Yes" is 40.0%.

PrayForPeace has also bet $2.8k, with the top related market being Iran, netting a profit of $23.2k. Out of 104 settled trades in this market, the win rate is 43/104 (41%), with 20 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.501-$0.65), the median historical investment amount is $15.9k.

Reuters reported on the 12th that Saudi Arabia's recent military response to the Houthi militia has remained within a limited scope. Riyadh is constructing a Red Sea maritime defense alliance and advancing military coordination mechanisms with Turkey and Pakistan.

The Houthi militia claimed on the 13th that two drones had attacked Saudi Aramco's refinery in Jazan. The Houthis attribute the action to Saudi aerial operations in Saada and Hajjah provinces in Yemen. The Saudi government did not immediately respond to the attack and related accusations. The Houthis had previously targeted ships in Mocha, Marib, and the Bab al-Mandeb strait.

UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg stated on the 13th that Yemen is facing the most serious risk of large-scale war since the 2022 ceasefire. Al Jazeera cited analysts suggesting a possible imminent ground offensive led by Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces.
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