Global Supply Shortage Widens, Commodity Smart Money Predicts Crude Oil to Surge Above $90 in a Month

According to PolyBeats tracking, in the prediction market Polymarket, a savvy investor placed a $10,000 bet on "Will August 2026 WTI Crude Oil touch $90?" predicting "Yes," with an average buying probability of 40.2%. The current probability of "Yes" is 34.5%.

Address 0xf3ad8f80 invested $10.0k, with the top-related market category being Commodities, netting a profit of $20.0k. Out of a total of 16 settled trades in this category, the success rate is 7/16 (44%), with 6 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.351-$0.4), the median historical investment amount was $617, making this investment 16.2 times that median.

As of reporting, WTI Crude Oil futures are at $81.31, with a weekly gain of approximately 4%, still needing a further 10.7% increase to reach $90. The U.S. has indicated it can sustain long-term sanctions on Iran and plans to increase economic pressure on Tehran. The IEA has raised its forecast for the 2026 global oil supply reduction from 3.7 million barrels per day to 4.3 million barrels per day. Discussions on restoring a temporary peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran have made no progress.

This week, OPEC and the IEA have lowered their global oil demand outlook. The IEA anticipates a daily decrease of 1.6 million barrels in global demand in 2026, while OPEC has revised its demand growth forecast from 780,000 barrels per day to 580,000 barrels per day. In July, the U.S. CPI rose by 3.4% year-on-year, with core CPI up by 2.5%. Expectations for a rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve in September have since weakened. The U.S. dollar and long-term Treasury yields retreated on August 13th.
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