Japan's GDP for the second quarter was announced on Monday, with Macro Smart Money predicting a growth rate of 0.0%-0.8%.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a whale has put in $955 on "Will Japan's Q2 2026 GDP Annualized Growth Rate be between 0.0% and 0.8%?" for "Yes," with an average buy-in probability of 43.0% and the current "Yes" probability at 70.0%.

BirobidjanRepublican has also put in $955, with the top-related category being Macroeconomics, with a net profit of $16.3k. Out of 94 settled trades in this category, their win rate is 75/94 (80%), with 19 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.351-$0.5), the median historical investment amount is $545.

The Japanese Cabinet Office will announce the Q2 2026 actual GDP preliminary figure on August 17 at 8:50, with a Reuters survey of 15 economists on the 7th indicating a median forecast of 0.5% QoQ growth, equivalent to 2.0% annualized growth. The Q1 second estimate showed an annualized growth of 1.8%.

The Reuters survey suggests that private consumption is expected to grow by 0.5% in the second quarter, while business capital expenditure is expected to increase by 0.4%. Net exports are forecasted to contribute 0.3 percentage points. Japan's industrial output rose by 1.3% in June with continued semiconductor and machinery-related demand supporting manufacturing activity.

A June survey by the Japan Economic Research Center predicted a Q2 annual average of 0.52%, Mizuho's mid-June Nowcast was 0.97%, and the Reuters August survey median was 2.0%. The preliminary figure to be released on August 17 will confirm the actual contributions of consumption, investment, and net exports.
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