Bitcoin Enters 'Rektember': September Historical Performance Weak, Rate Hike Risks May Suppress August Gains

September 1st. Bitcoin started September on a weak note, falling below $78,000. Since 2013, September has been the worst-performing month for Bitcoin, with an average decline of about 3%. It has only seen a monthly increase 5 times, hence it is jokingly referred to as "Rektember" by the market. However, Bitcoin has seen gains in the past 3 Septembers, following a 25% increase in August. This was its strongest monthly performance since November 2024, but it may face short-term consolidation or even a pullback pressure.

The macro environment is also adding pressure. After Fed Chair Powell signaled a hawkish stance at the Jackson Hole Symposium, the global bond market experienced a sell-off, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.784% at one point. The current market expectation is that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points on September 16, with a probability of about 66%, and there are bets on further rate hikes later this year. Higher interest rates usually tighten financial conditions, support the dollar, and suppress risk assets like Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, the ongoing tension in the Middle East has driven up oil prices, with WTI crude oil rising to around $88 per barrel, while gold dropped over 2% on Tuesday. The traditional markets are also facing seasonal pressure; since 1975, September has been the only month with a negative average performance for the S&P 500 Index.