Is the probability of Arc issuing a token within the year only 20%? A certain smart money believes this probability is severely underestimated.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, as of the time of writing, the probability of "Arc issuing a token this year" is 20%.

The top "Yes" holder in this market, hitjnn214, has made a total of 14 trades in the token issuance sector, with a win rate of 79% and a net profit of $59,400. This bet is 12.20 times their median bet size.

On September 16, Circle's Arc public chain officially opened. Circle released a whitepaper in May, describing ARC as a future network coordination asset: used for PoS staking and delegation, governance, fee buyback and burn, and platform incentives. The whitepaper proposed an initial supply of 10 billion tokens, with 60% allocated to the ecosystem, 25% to Circle, and 15% as long-term reserves.

Arc official currently still clearly states: ARC has not yet launched, and whether it will be released, when it will be released, and the specific features and distribution arrangements have not been finalized.