JPMorgan's Outlook on Fed Decision Day: Stock Market May Swing 2%

September 16 - JPMorgan stated that with the market widely expecting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points today, post-meeting communication could determine whether US stocks rise or face a sell-off, with the S&P 500 index potentially fluctuating by up to 2%.

JPMorgan anticipates that if the Fed raises rates by 25 basis points as expected but provides only limited guidance on future policy, the S&P 500 index may rise by 0.25% to 0.75%; if the rate hike is accompanied by a stronger anti-inflation signal, the index could gain between 0.5% and 1%.

If the Fed unexpectedly keeps rates unchanged, long-term US Treasury yields might increase, and the S&P 500 index could fall by 1.25% to 1.75%. The greatest risk is if the Fed hints that to curb inflation, interest rates must remain at "substantially higher" levels, in which case the S&P 500 index could drop by 1% to 2%, putting pressure on the current rebound trend.