Analysis: Bitcoin Price Diverges from Demand, ETF Inflows and Exchange Withdrawals for Hoarding Provide Short-Term Support

September 23 — CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that although Bitcoin's price is rising, sustained buying pressure remains difficult to rebuild, and market signals are mixed. The 30-day cumulative spot demand is -180,000 BTC, still negative, while futures demand is +54,000 BTC, still positive but slightly declining. Total average demand improved from -188,000 BTC to -126,000 BTC, with the gap narrowing but the overall figure still in negative territory. Price and total demand have recently diverged: Bitcoin's price is rising, but total demand has yet to turn positive, indicating that the rally is driven more by easing selling pressure than by strong buying.

By segment, the demand recovery is uneven. On the institutional side, geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions are unfavorable, but the volume-weighted Coinbase Premium briefly turned positive, showing that U.S. spot markets occasionally command a premium relative to other markets, and institutional selling pressure has clearly eased. ETFs are the biggest change this round: compared with this summer, demand has completely reversed, with recent net purchases of about 70,000 BTC. Cumulative net inflows for 2026 remain at about -17,000 BTC, but are already close to flipping back to positive. On exchanges, net outflows dominated throughout September, skewing toward accumulation rather than distribution. Bitcoin leaving exchanges usually means short-term selling pressure is lighter.

Analyst Darkfost concluded that the current price increase is mainly not because buying has strengthened, but because investors have not continued to add selling pressure at higher price levels. The market structure remains fragile.