Ye Tan: The Internet era is drawing to a close, while the AI era has long begun.

September 23 — During the "Binance Living Room" segment of the "Ye Tan - Under the Cycle" private gathering, renowned economist Ye Tan shared her views on topics including the Kondratiev cycle, changes in China's economic structure, and the flow of wealth. She stated that if we are currently at a turning point in the Kondratiev cycle, the internet era is drawing to a close, while AI has become a new growth direction, and this round of change has in fact already begun.

Ye Tan pointed out that against the backdrop of an overall investment downturn in China, AI-related infrastructure investment remains at the level of tens of trillions of yuan, with an average annual compound growth rate exceeding 10%. If related plans continue through 2030, social wealth and resources may continue to tilt toward emerging industries such as AI. However, she also emphasized that within AI itself there are differences among sub-sectors and market volatility, and industry growth does not necessarily mean that related investments will be profitable.

From the perspective of China's economic cycle, Ye Tan believes that China has rapidly completed multiple stages over the past 40-plus years, including manufacturing, basic industries, and informatization, with the pace of economic structural transition markedly accelerating, which has also brought sharp divergence among different assets and industries. Citing real estate and high-tech industries as examples, she noted that during the same period, different industries and groups of people may have completely different perceptions of the economic cycle, which essentially reflects the redistribution of wealth among different industries.

At the medium-cycle level, geopolitics is also affecting industry prosperity. Taking the shipbuilding industry as an example, Ye Tan said that the obstruction of the Red Sea shipping route has lengthened shipping routes and reduced ship turnover efficiency, objectively increasing shipping companies' demand for vessels and extending the duration of the shipbuilding industry's prosperity cycle.

Regarding the current economic environment, Ye Tan said that traditional manufacturing and some consumer industries may be in the late stage of a recession cycle and gradually bottoming out, but at the same time, new industries are rising, creating obvious structural divergence. She believes that cycles themselves will not directly tell investors what to buy, but they can help observe where wealth and capital are flowing and where risks are accumulating.

Finally, Ye Tan emphasized that different investors have different tools they are good at and different risk tolerance, and should invest according to their own circumstances, testing the waters with small amounts and acting within their means.