Bitunix analyst: Is a high interest rate above 5% becoming the new normal? The U.S. Treasury repo policy is undergoing market repricing.

October 8 — The problem facing long-end U.S. interest rates is no longer just Federal Reserve policy expectations, but whether the Treasury's own debt management tools can actually change market pricing. Bessent expanded the cap on 10-year to 30-year Treasury buybacks to $6 billion, originally intended to include improving the liquidity of old bonds, yet the 10-year yield still rose to 5.35% and the 30-year approached 5.7%, even higher than before the buyback expansion in August. When policy tools increase but cannot push down long-end rates, the market will naturally reassess: the real core driver pushing yields higher may still be massive supply, fiscal deficits, and investors demanding a higher term premium.

This is also the key to Warren's questioning of the Treasury's "chaotic intervention." Actual buyback purchases falling below the cap means the Treasury is not providing an unconditional backstop; if TGA cash or short-term debt financing is then used to fund buybacks, it merely adjusts the maturity structure and does not equal eliminating the government's overall financing needs. In other words, policy can improve market microstructure, but it may not be able to absorb the long-term interest rate pressure brought by fiscal expansion.

High long-term bond yields are also reshaping asset comparisons. The BofA model believes S&P 500 returns over the next ten years may be below 5%, while Treasuries already offer a more attractive starting yield; gold falling below $4,100 shows that when the dollar and real rates strengthen simultaneously, safe-haven demand may not be enough to offset holding costs. For BTC, the daily chart remains in high-level oscillation, currently around $83,487, with liquidity near $87,000 above, and $82,929 below as the recent key support zone; if breached, the $76,000 to $80,000 and $70,000 to $73,000 areas become subsequent structural demand bands.

Therefore, what is truly worth watching next is not how much the Treasury can buy back, but whether long-end yields can stabilize on their own in a high-supply environment. If 10-year and 30-year rates continue to rise, they will gradually increase the opportunity cost of stocks, gold, and crypto assets; conversely, if high yields begin to restrain the economy and capital expenditure, bonds will regain room for price recovery. What the market is testing now is precisely whether U.S. fiscal policy can control long-term funding costs.