Gemini-4 becomes the best model, AI ranking high win-rate account suffers severe unrealized losses and still hasn't stopped loss.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, Popopolly invested $95k in "Anthropic will have the strongest AI model in October," and is currently sitting on an unrealized loss of -65%.

Popopolly bought $92.46k of "Yes" at an entry probability of 78.73%. It has made a total of 13 trades in the AI rankings sector, with a win rate of 92.3% and a PnL of +$25.7k. This investment is 1.54 times its median investment.

The direct catalyst for the probability reversal was Google's release of Gemini 4 Argon on September 30. The model was initially made available to trusted cybersecurity researchers in the Fairwind program, and later gradually expanded to paid API customers and Google AI Ultra users.

As of the Arena leaderboard, the market's settlement source, gemini-4-argon-high ranks first with a score of 1533±9, while Anthropic's highest, claude-opus-5.5-high, ranks second with 1512±9.

Anthropic still retains about 28%, partly because of the most frequently discussed comeback candidate in the market right now — the successor model in the Fable series. Fable 5.1 has already reached 1511 points, and if the new version can achieve significant improvements in reasoning, writing, and overall preference, it could directly challenge Argon.