Bitunix Analyst: The AI Boom Hasn't Faded, But Market Divergence Deepens — Foreign Outflows and Speculative Trading Warm Simultaneously

October 13 — Global markets are not turning bearish on AI; rather, they are beginning to reassess the capital risks behind growth expectations. BlackRock downgraded U.S. equities from overweight to neutral and shifted to overweight short-term U.S. Treasuries, reflecting how high interest rates and volatility in AI infrastructure investment have raised the risk of holding equities. South Korea's Kospi plunged more than 6.5% intraday, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix falling for a fifth consecutive trading day, as foreign investors net sold over $6 billion in October. Even with semiconductor companies still posting strong profits, concentrated holdings, the retreat of leveraged trades, and the gradual disappearance of buyback bids could still amplify price corrections.

U.S. equities present another extreme: daily notional volume in single-stock options is about $700 billion, with more than half of trades concentrated in contracts expiring within two weeks, while bullish sentiment has rebounded to its highest level since July. This indicates that capital has not fully retreated from risk assets, but shorter trading horizons and concentrated positioning have made the market more sensitive to stock price swings. When profit expectations are already high and prices depend on support from a handful of AI companies, any earnings miss or slowdown in investment returns could trigger more violent position adjustments.

The IMF warned that global economic growth is becoming concentrated in fewer economies, and that the AI hardware supply chain and demand markets are also highly concentrated, meaning that once tech investment cools, the impact could transmit simultaneously to multiple markets. Kazakhstan's central bank plans to cut gold's share of its foreign exchange reserves from about 78% to 75%, noting that high U.S. Treasury yields increase the appeal of dollar assets, which also reflects that institutions are reassessing asset allocation.

Next, the U.S. September CPI will be a key test for the market. If core inflation rises 0.2% month over month, it could support the Federal Reserve in pausing rate hikes; if it rises to 0.3%, it could reignite tightening expectations. Headline CPI may still be pushed higher by energy prices. What the market really needs to confirm is no longer just whether AI demand exists, but whether corporate profits can support current valuations, and whether capital is willing to continue bearing concentration risk amid high interest rates and inflation uncertainty.