Google developer's post interpreted as Gemini 4.0 imminent release, with probability of Wednesday launch approaching 100%

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the market "Gemini 4.0 released before the end of October 14" rose from 50% reported yesterday to 93%. The new account ilovehistamines mentioned by PolyBeats yesterday currently has unrealized gains of over 40% and has not reduced or closed its position.

As of the time of writing, the other 2 suspicious accounts in this trading event:

4ts3hc bought $1.08k "Yes" on "Gemini 4.0 released before the end of October 13" at a buy probability of 76.03%. It has made a total of 7 trades in the Gemini sector, with a 100% win rate, PnL +$1.3k, and this bet was 10.47 times its median bet.

0x6C674340 bought $525.13 "Yes" on "Gemini 4.0 released before the end of October 13" at a buy probability of 39.37%. It has made a total of 15 trades in the Gemini sector, with an 80% win rate, PnL +$1.4k, and this bet was 1.66 times its median bet.

On October 13, Logan Kilpatrick, a personal account related to Google AI, posted a one-word post "Gemini," which was subsequently interpreted as a hint at a model launch; he had also written "Argon is coming" on October 10. The model/tech leak-focused account TestingCatalog then quoted the post, directly writing "Officially confirmed that Gemini 4 Argon is being rolled out to Ultra users today."

Logan Kilpatrick is one of the members at Google DeepMind working on Gemini developer products, and describes himself as responsible for Gemini, Google AI Studio, Gemini API, and Kaggle. No official Google-related accounts have released any news about the launch of Gemini 4.0.