Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud: Bitcoin's direction awaits CPI decision, lower bound of $81,000 may be tested first

October 14: Bitcoin has pulled back from around $86,000 in early October and has been oscillating in the $81,000 to $84,000 range in recent days, while the dollar has strengthened and U.S. Treasury yields have remained elevated over the same period. In response, Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud believes the downside break of the oscillation range is more likely. The September ISM services prices paid index rose to 74.0, the highest since July 2022, and the University of Michigan 1-year inflation expectation rebounded to 4.7% in October. The simultaneous rise in price subcomponents and inflation expectations means the probability of an upside surprise in Thursday's CPI is not low. Once that materializes, year-end rate hike pricing will be further reinforced, and the lower bound of $81,000 will be tested first; only if CPI comes in below expectations will a breakout above the upper bound of $84,000 be sustainable.

Recently, chip stocks have continued to decline, mainly due to the repricing within the sector of the pace of AI capital expenditure and hardware profit expectations, which is an industry alpha event. By contrast, Bitcoin's drawdown has been noticeably smaller, indicating that its current pricing anchor is more skewed toward macro liquidity and that its correlation with the AI narrative is weakening, with the drivers of the two diverging. However, this divergence is temporary. Once the dollar and long-end rates regain dominance in pricing, the linkage will quickly strengthen again, and Thursday evening's CPI release is the nearest testing window.

Note: The content of this article is not investment advice, nor does it constitute any offer, solicitation of an offer, or recommendation for any investment product.