Bitunix Analyst: Inflation Stickiness Limits Policy Space — AI Asset Valuations and Treasury Safe-Haven Function Both Under Test

October 20 -Global markets are showing a pricing divergence worth noting. US September CPI rose 0.6% month-on-month and core CPI 0.3%, meaning inflation pressure has not yet dissipated—yet last week the 10-year Treasury yield posted its largest weekly decline since February. Oil briefly climbed to $110 per barrel, and bond yields fell instead of rising—showing that markets are no longer simply inferring rates from energy prices, and are now weighing economic growth slowdown against the risk of monetary over-tightening.

This divergence still carries two possible interpretations. If the pullback in AI-related stocks reflects a cooling of corporate investment and future demand, inflation could ease along with weakening economic momentum, and the safe-haven function of Treasuries would have a chance to recover. But if the bond rally is primarily driven by short covering and oversold correction, it cannot be taken as a confirmation that the economic outlook has turned weaker. White House economic advisor Hassett has emphasized that inflation still needs to be taken seriously—meaning strong consumption may extend price pressure, and the Fed is unlikely to easily pivot to easing in the near term.

AI asset valuation divergence further confirms that the market is raising its return threshold. Korean AI infrastructure company Elice saw its share price briefly fall 32% from the IPO price on its listing day—even as H1 revenue grew 200% year-on-year and the company turned to operating profit. This shows that strong growth and improving profitability may not be enough to offset concerns about valuations and ongoing capital needs. Meanwhile, NYSE has extended trading hours for options on popular stocks and ETFs, reflecting rising investor demand for cross-timezone risk management tools—but extended trading does not necessarily mean liquidity will be equally ample across all hours.

For crypto markets, the core observations remain real interest rates, dollar funding conditions, and changes in risk appetite. Should inflation stay elevated and rates remain restrictive, risk asset valuations will bear pressure. Should the bond market be reflecting growth cooling, short-term risk-off and deleveraging could precede any liquidity improvement. Ahead, incoming inflation data, Fed policy signals, and whether AI assets can stabilize valuations will together decide whether this market divergence is a short-term position correction—or whether growth and rate expectations are being repriced.