An account that previously went to zero due to prematurely predicting a US-Iran war has returned, forecasting that the Iran-Israel ceasefire cannot last.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, an account that registered on January 21 this year and concentrated on buying multiple "US strikes Iran" contracts for late January has returned, putting $1.3k into "Israel x Iran ceasefire will not last until November," with a potential return of more than 6x.

The account had exited after all its January trades went to zero and had no activity over the past 9 months. Axios previously reported that in mid-January, Washington and officials from multiple Middle Eastern countries at one point believed the US military would bomb Tehran within hours: Al Udeid in Qatar and the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain had begun evacuation-level movements, and Iran briefly closed its airspace; but "the order was never given."

In addition to various macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, one of the narrative focal points of the US-Israel-Iran conflict is the Israeli election scheduled for October 27. With Netanyahu's current probability of being elected at only 28%, public discussion of his two political paths both revolves around "striking Iran": one is to bind himself more tightly to the right-wing Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism, a camp that has consistently supported a hard line on Iran; the other is to "start another war/enter a state of emergency and use a security crisis to delay the political calendar"—some commentary and former Prime Minister Ehud Barak and others have publicly warned that the election could be undermined.

But Israel's Basic Law is clear: postponing a national election requires legislation by the Knesset, with at least 80 lawmakers in favor, and proof that special circumstances make it impossible to hold free and equal elections on schedule; it cannot be delayed unilaterally by the government. Likud messages cited by The Jerusalem Post said Netanyahu privately worries more that reopening war against Iran before the election would hand images of missiles, casualties, and shelters to Eisenkot, considers gathering 80 votes for a postponement "unrealistic," and has conveyed to Washington: Israel would prefer a major military operation to come after the October 27 election.