Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud: Bitcoin likely to continue oscillating before the interest rate decision, the lower bound of $80,000 may be tested first.

October 21 - Bitcoin has been trapped in the $80,000 to $84,000 range for nearly two weeks. In response, Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud believes that the essence is two forces offsetting each other: ETFs have seen net outflows for two consecutive weeks, while exchange holdings continue to flow out and long-term holders are only modestly taking profits. In the week before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, Bitcoin is highly likely to continue waiting in a range. CME only prices a 16% chance of a rate hike in October, while economists generally see it as close to 50-50. This gap between pricing and divergence will make funds reluctant to bet ahead of time.

If a direction is chosen early, the possibility of testing downward is slightly higher: funding rates remain elevated, and option skew continues to lean toward puts, indicating that longs have not yet been cleared out and demand for downside protection is still increasing. However, below $80,000 has repeatedly formed effective support over the past month, and a downward breakout is more likely to be a false breakout.

Confirmation signals for a breakout are divided into two groups. For an upward move, the daily close needs to be above $84,200, ETFs need cumulative net inflows exceeding $500 million over three consecutive days, and the funding rate must not exceed 15%. For a downward move, $79,800 must be lost, weekly ETF outflows must again exceed $500 million, and exchange funds must turn to net inflows. The real source of direction remains the interest rate decision to be announced in the early hours of October 29 Beijing time and the nearly 89% rate hike pricing for December.

Note: The content of this article is not investment advice, nor does it constitute an offer, solicitation of an offer, or recommendation for any investment product.