Tesla and SpaceX Form Committee to Explore Merger; 3 High-Win-Rate Accounts Say It Won't Happen This Year

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on October 20, Musk said during SpaceX's Q3 earnings call that SpaceX and Tesla have each established special committees composed of independent directors to explore the possibility of a merger between the two companies. On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "Tesla and SpaceX officially announcing a merger this year" is 23%.

Red781RuM bought $1.2k "No." This account has a 100% win rate across 7 trades in the Tesla sector, with PnL +$1.0k and ROI +37.6%.
nonkenny90 bought $2.2k "No." This account has a 96.3% win rate across 27 trades in the SpaceX sector, with PnL +$9.6k and ROI +20.3%.
Folletin bought $3.2k "No." This account has an 81.8% win rate across 11 trades in the Tesla sector, with PnL +$2.5k and ROI +31.8%.

Musk said on the call that he is "a party with a conflict of interest" and cannot participate in the discussions; he believes a merger is a "good idea," but said claims that a merger is a done deal are "overstated." He also said Tesla needs 50% of all shares to vote in favor, not just 50% of shares voted, and that the "threshold is quite high."

According to Ars Technica, SpaceX acquired xAI in February this year, listed on Nasdaq in June, and currently has a market value of about $2 trillion, while Tesla is about $1.5 trillion. Musk holds more than 82% of voting power in SpaceX and about 20% in Tesla. Tesla's past related-party transactions have all drawn lawsuits, such as the 2016 acquisition of SolarCity.