Willy Woo: 5,000 simulations predict Bitcoin's future trajectory, with a median result of $1.48 million by mid-2034.

October 27: Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo published a BTC Monte Carlo simulation model inspired by Sminston With, which uses a random number generator to generate price paths based on Bitcoin's historical market performance to simulate possible future trends.

Willy Woo stated that the model mainly made three adjustments: first, incorporating the cyclical market structure in which BTC is situated; second, reconstructing BTC's true probability distribution based on historical data rather than fitting it to some preset ideal distribution; third, using data from the 2018 market bottom to the 2022 market bottom as input, deliberately excluding earlier BTC market data to better reflect the modern market environment under the influence of derivatives, ETFs, and rapid liquidation mechanisms.

Additionally, the model retains the power-law scaling mechanism to reflect the phenomenon of diminishing returns in each BTC cycle. Willy Woo specifically highlighted the 28th percentile simulation path, as this path aligns with a pattern he observed: the next bottom may find support near the previous top.

Previously, Sminston With shared another Monte Carlo experiment that simulated BTC through 2034, running a total of 5,000 times. The results showed that not a single simulation produced a price below the current level of approximately $80,000; the median result was approximately $1.48 million, and even the lowest 5% result reached approximately $464,000. It should be noted that these figures are all simulation results generated based on specific assumptions and historical data, and are not deterministic price predictions. The model's conclusions are subject to factors such as input data, diminishing returns assumptions, and changes in market structure.