Israeli election soldier votes still being counted; four suspicious new accounts profited from the main election market and then shifted bets to specific seat counts.

According to monitoring by PolyBeats, voting in Israel's 26th Knesset election ended yesterday, with a turnout of about 77.7%, the highest since 1999. On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "Likud winning the most seats" rose from 21% the day before to 99% currently.
However, as of publication, in another event, "Israel election: how many seats will Likud win," the probability of "25–29 seats" is only 95%. According to Israeli election convention, soldier votes and other double-envelope votes are counted after ordinary votes. The Jewish Chronicle expects this portion to be fully counted around October 29.
Among the accounts that bought "30–34 seats," 4 accounts have almost identical profiles: they registered within three days before the vote, first bought "Likud wins the most seats," sold for a combined profit of $43.2k (+138%), and then shifted to "Likud wins 30–34 seats," investing a combined $19.4k, with a maximum potential gain of $141.5k (+729%).
For Likud to return to 30 seats or more, the remaining votes need to lean clearly toward Likud, or a small party hovering near the threshold must fall below it, allowing the remaining seats to be reallocated; some analysts believe that if Ra'am falls below the threshold, Likud could gain additional seats. Conversely, if subsequent vote counting continues the current trend and Likud stops at 28 to 29 seats, 30–34 seats will go to zero.
Accounts:
0x4585657674bedd9991691c7a383ae5e0277bbdfd
0x31de8b5aa6f81ba6f2eada6ce42f1f7c570b0a59
0x57678df5e84c8812ae4dca9006f3d5e5b4d05861