'Godfather of Commodities': Time to Take Short-Term Profits in Crude Oil Has Arrived

November 3 — After international oil prices surged this year, Jeff Currie, a well-known investor who has long been bullish on the energy market, has begun advising investors to take short-term profits. However, he has not changed his judgment on the long-term outlook for the energy industry, believing that the structural energy supercycle driven by deglobalization, electrification, and currency depreciation still exists, and that investment opportunities are shifting from crude oil itself to energy infrastructure and supply chain resilience.

Currie is the founder and CEO of Real Macro, and previously served as chief energy strategist at The Carlyle Group and Goldman Sachs, earning him the title of "commodities godfather." He has been consistently bullish on oil since the COVID-19 pandemic and further reinforced this stance after the outbreak of the Iran crisis this year.

However, he said on social platform X that now is the time to cash in some short-term trading gains, for two main reasons: first, oil prices had risen too fast and too much previously; second, further escalation of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz would have mutually destructive consequences for both sides of the conflict.

Currie referred to spot crude oil and short-term futures contracts as "prompt oil." He believes investors can consider taking profits on such trades as well as refined product positions. Brent crude has risen about 75% year to date, which in his view has already provided investors with sufficiently generous returns.