Predict.fun: Probability of Democrats Sweeping Both Chambers in U.S. Midterm Elections Rises to 92%

November 4 - The latest data from prediction market platform Predict.fun shows that the probability of "Democrats winning both the Senate and the House of Representatives" in the US midterm elections has risen to 92%. The probability of "Republicans retaining the Senate and Democrats winning the House" is 9%, which is the second most likely scenario in the market's view. The probability of "Republicans retaining both the Senate and the House" is 1%; the probability of "Democrats winning the Senate and Republicans retaining the House" is 1%.

As of 19:00 US Eastern Time on November 3, voting in the US midterm elections continues, while polling stations in Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia, and Indiana have all closed and voting has ended. In addition, voting has also ended in some congressional district races in Florida, with voting in the rest of the state set to end at 20:00 US Eastern Time that day. As polling stations in various states close one after another, vote counting in the relevant districts will also gradually begin.