Analysis: Bitcoin seller pressure hits bear market extreme, bottoming out is hopeful but a reversal still requires new demand

November 4 — CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted that on-chain data shows Bitcoin's "seller exhaustion model" indicator has fallen to its lowest level since the bear market. The model measures whether sellers still have enough chips to continue pushing prices down by comparing the market's profitable supply ratio with average monthly volatility. As BTC has retraced more than 10% from its previous high, short-term profit-taking in the market has largely been completed, and selling momentum has noticeably weakened. From historical patterns, such a sharp decline in selling pressure usually helps form a market bottom.

The analyst also warned that reduced selling pressure does not mean the market will immediately rebound. The core contradiction at present is that although sellers have calmed down, the market still lacks sufficient "new demand" to drive prices higher, and before buying funds return substantially, Bitcoin's upside remains limited.