Analysis: BTC encounters resistance at the upper band of short-term holder cost basis, with retracement observation levels between $72,300 and $75,700.

November 4th - Market analyst Murphy stated that looking back from January to September 2023, after BTC price encountered resistance at 1 standard deviation above the short-term holder realized price (STH-RP), it experienced certain degrees of pullback. Among the three retracements, the first perfectly retested to the STH-RP, the second slightly broke below this line, and the third fell between the STH-RP and 1 standard deviation below.

Murphy indicated that the current STH-RP is approximately $75,700, with 1 standard deviation below at about $68,900. If simply referring to the above patterns, retracing to $75,700, retracing to $72,300, or falling between the two, all three scenarios have certain probabilities. Murphy emphasized that he does not seek to predict market movements, but only makes trading plans. Combined with previous judgments on the "seller exhaustion index," BTC's pullback to approximately $77,000 has formed the second-lowest point of this cycle, only higher than the signal point in August this year. The analysis is for reference only and not direct investment advice.