Analysis: After the midterm elections, it will be difficult for Trump to interfere with Fed appointments, and the market is focused on the interest rate hike outlook.

November 5 - After the U.S. midterm elections, the Democratic Party secured both the Senate and the House of Representatives, narrowing the White House's room to influence the Federal Reserve through personnel appointments. Fed governor nominations require Senate confirmation, and Trump's plans to further reshape the composition of the Board of Governors face obstacles. Fed Chair Warsh, appointed by Trump in May this year, raised interest rates by 25 basis points in September amid inflation still above the 2% target — the first monetary policy tightening in three years. Although the October meeting paused rate hikes, his post-meeting remarks reinforced market expectations of another tightening in December.

Some economists believe the election results allow Warsh to focus more on monetary policy itself. PGIM Chief Global Economist Dalip Singh expects the Fed may raise rates by a cumulative 100 basis points over the next year. However, some analysts note that if Trump adjusts his policy toward Iran or abandons further tariff increases, and inflation pressures ease, the actual extent of tightening may not necessarily expand. Chair Warsh's term will extend to 2030, beyond Trump's current presidential term. Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren is expected to lead the Senate Banking Committee, and Warsh's policy stance and information disclosure practices may also face stricter oversight.