HTX DeepThink: AI Investment Returns Under Reassessment, BTC's Safe-Haven Property Unverified Amid Tech Stock Selloff

November 6 — Chloe, author of the HTX DeepThink column and researcher at HTX Research, noted in an analysis that this week's sharp volatility in global risk assets stemmed primarily from the market's reassessment of the return-on-investment cycle for the AI industry chain. Democrats won majority seats in both the Senate and House in the midterm elections, which the market initially interpreted as the dissipation of political uncertainty, prompting a brief rebound in US equities and crypto assets. However, investors quickly refocused on the high interest rate environment and companies' ability to deliver on earnings, and risk appetite reversed rapidly.

On November 5, the S&P 500 closed at 7,353.73 points, the Dow Jones fell about 3.44% in a single day, the VIX rose to 28.18, and selling pressure on the Nasdaq and large-cap tech stocks was pronounced. Major tech companies continued to expand data center and computing power spending, and the contradiction between free cash flow pressure and the pace of revenue monetization gradually emerged. Combined with the 10-year US Treasury yield holding near a high of 5%, valuation room for growth stocks narrowed further, and capital focus is shifting toward earnings quality and capital efficiency.

The crypto market came under pressure in tandem. BTC fell to around $76,000 this week at one point, rebounded above $80,000 after the election results were announced, and then fell back to around $75,700 on November 5. ETH dropped to around $2,250, and 24-hour derivatives liquidations at one point exceeded $1 billion. BTC spot ETFs continued to see periodic outflows, with a single-day net outflow of about $399 million on November 3, and incremental institutional capital was insufficient to absorb the selling pressure from deleveraging and position reduction. The correlation between BTC and the US tech sector strengthened again, and BTC failed to demonstrate an independent safe-haven attribute when the stock market fell.

Next week, US CPI data to be released on November 10 will be a key catalyst. If inflation comes in below expectations and US Treasury yields fall, tech stocks and crypto assets may see an oversold rebound; if inflation remains sticky, high-valuation sectors may continue to face pressure. In the short term, the S&P 500 is expected to fluctuate in the 7,200–7,600 range, while BTC should focus on the $75,000 support and the $80,000–$82,000 resistance. The overall judgment remains cautiously neutral, and whether ETF flows can return to net inflows and whether tech stocks can stabilize will determine whether the market can rebuild sustained risk appetite.