Analysis: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Are Transferring Coins to Exchanges at a Loss

October 27: CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. notes that Bitcoin short-term holders are continuing to transfer coins to exchanges at a loss. The 24-hour inflow balance for his "short-term holder net profit" metric was negative 18,600 BTC on October 27, meaning loss-driven transfers exceeded profit-driven transfers by 18,600 BTC; a week earlier the balance was positive 10,400 BTC. On October 26 the balance had fallen to negative 23,100 BTC, before narrowing somewhat; it remains negative and has been so since August this year. The metric tracks exchange inflows of coins younger than six months, with a negative value indicating that loss-driven transfers dominate inflows.

For the week ending October 27, the share of periods in which profit-driven transfers accounted for short-term holder exchange inflows fell from 75% to 16%, indicating that most transfers are currently tied to realized losses. Adler said a rebound in that share above 50% together with the balance returning above zero would indicate that profit-taking is once again dominant; the main risk is another increase in transfers tied to realized losses. He also cautioned that a negative balance does not mean these coins have been sold at a loss—it only reflects transfers.