Analysis: Bitcoin's Push Toward $100K Stalls as Investors Sell Into Rallies, Forming Overhead Resistance

October 29 — Bitcoin's rally has gradually faded after its summer rebound, with the price falling back to around $80,000, and investors are facing persistent selling pressure in its push toward the $100,000 mark, according to Bloomberg. Investors who bought Bitcoin over the past two years have cost bases concentrated at $87,000 and above; sell pressure from holders looking to break even near that level has twice this year capped Bitcoin's rebounds, with each followed by a drawdown of at least 25%. In addition, the average cost basis of Bitcoin ETF holders is about $81,500, and a sustained close below that level could mean the average ETF holder has turned to an unrealized loss and weaken recent on-chain support.

In addition, macro factors are also weighing on Bitcoin. AI-themed stocks have performed weakly this month, and analysts believe Bitcoin remains highly correlated with the moves of tech stocks; AI valuation concerns and debt risks are pressuring Bitcoin. The market has yet to confirm the start of a new bull run, and the path ahead still depends on the macro environment and sustained buying.